March 17, 2018
One way to anticipate the future is to look to the past. British economist Angus Maddison has estimated that in the year 0, the population of Western Europe was 24.7m. A millennium later it was 25.4m, an increase of just 700,000. Total global population increased by only 37.3m in 1,000 years. Had we continued at this pace, in 2015 there would have been 312m people on Earth. Gross domestic product fared even worse. Between the year 0 and 1,000 - GDP per capita was stagnant or fell across all of Maddison’s seven global zones. Over the next 800 years, the pace quickened a little. World population quadrupled to crack the billion for the first time. By 1819, the Eastern European population of 91.2m generated some $60.9bn worth of stuff (1990 International $) or $665 per person. Then in 1820 everything changed, sort of. Fuelled by a potent mix of technology, ideas, appropriated resources, and a distressing number of…