Critical minerals’ part in global carbonisation flags a huge copper future. John Fennell, CEO of the International Copper Association speaks about the Roadmap to Zero
The urgent global focus on decarbonisation and clean energy is driving the unprecedented emergence of new technologies, creating a new era of demand and development for a wide range of minerals, including copper. Copper continues to have a foundational role in modern society and its diverse applications are integral to the transition to a clean energy future.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) reported that the global capacity for renewable energy saw an unprecedented 50% increase in 2023, the fastest growth in two decades. With the acceleration of technological advancements and electrification, copper demand remains strong and resilient. Predictions are that 115% more copper must be mined in the next 30 years than has ever been mined historically.
Exploration and discovery are crucial to expand or develop mines and provide the primary copper supply. Despite growing investment in copper exploration, the industry faces various challenges. The discovery rate for all economic deposits globally has halved in the last decade, and the average cost of discovery is now four times higher than 20 years ago. Recent discoveries are relatively small and of lower grade when compared to historic exploration success. Further, the lead time to progress to mine development is almost 18 years. Today is exploration focuses on greenfield and brownfield exploration, including new search spaces and expanding current operations. This is occurring amidst increased government regulation and rising environmental and social considerations. The challenges and costs for traditional exploration are encouraging alternative sourcing of copper, including reprocessing, recovery, and recycling as well as opportunities for novel sourcing.
Many exploration processes have remained relatively unchanged compared to the technological innovations in other parts of the mining chain. However, very recent advances, including the use of artificial intelligence (AI), machine learning (ML), data analytics, data management, as well as a new range of sensors and geophysical techniques and real-time data capture, indicate that the industry is on the cusp of a new frontier that will bring lower impact exploration, reduce investment risk, and allow fast-track discovery.
Innovation in exploration must target both incremental and step-change technologies to enable more effective and efficient exploration practices. Advancing the adoption of new technologies is also important due to the lengthy delays in new technology becoming standard industry techniques. The importance of alternative business models and collaboration between industry, government, Mining Equipment, Technology and Service (METS), and research organisations cannot be overstated in advancing the innovation effort.
Discovery provides detailed insight into the rising global demand for copper and the industry’s challenges in meeting this demand. It also emphasises the importance of new thinking, innovation, and technology to drive exploration and discovery and deliver on the essential elements supporting our Roadmap to Zero.